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China Issues Strict Rules to Regulate TV Shows

One word says it all,

LAME!

China Issues Strict Rules to Regulate TV Shows

... SARFT said in its new order that it wants "scientific judging standards" and will ban voting by mobile phone and Internet, with voting only to take place among live audiences ...

Fred's Power User and Developer Tool List for Windows

This is the software tools I'm using actively. Those tools are definitely indispensable to me. For the purpose of archiving as well as sharing my beloved tools, I'm publishing the tool list here.

I'm expecting to update this list constantly in the future. Detailed explanations will follow shortly.

 

  • EVERYDAY TOOLS
    • Text Editing: Notepad2, Notepad++, e-texteditor, Vim, DarkRoom (I rarely use Vim nowadays, but I still install it partly due to the muscle memory. Another reason is to keep the hard learnt skills in Vim not fading away from me. It surely will be remaining as the default text editor of *nix systems for another several decades.)
    • Command line: PowerShell, CygWin
    • Launchy and skins
    • Sysinternals tools
    • FolderShare
    • Synergy
    • Foxit Reader
    • Zoom Player
    • Vista Codec Package
    • Skype
    • MSN Messenger (Miranda IM)
    • Total Commander
    • TimeSnapper
    • Firefox
    • ImgBurn
    • Switcher
    • Paint.NET
    • CCleaner
    • TrueCrypt
    • Magical Jelly Bean KeyFinder
    • Babylon 5
    • Microsoft Office 2007 (Word 2007, Excel 2007, Access 2007, Powerpoint 2007, OneNote 2007, Outlook 2007, Visio 2007)
  • A DEVELOPER'S LIFE
    • Visual Studio 2005
    • Lutz's Reflector
    • TestDriven.NET
    • Query Express
    • WatiN Test Recorder
    • WinMerge
    • Jeff Key's Snippet Compiler
    • Ruby and Watir
  • ACADEMIC WORKS
    • MiKTeX
    • WinEdt
    • Matlab
  • OPTIONAL TOOLS
    • ImageMagick
    • InstantBoss

Java related software are not included because I'm getting some Microsoft fevers lately for preparing myself for my coming corporation job, which, suggested by the job title, apparently is a Microsoft heavy one. Don't get me wrong though, I still love Java very much. And I'll also keep my Java skills sharp. Those experiences were, are, and will be the most precious for me.

A final note. Wiping out an old OS and going through all those hassles again is never a good user experience. I would recommend everyone backup a disk image with Acronis TrueImage right after installed all software and updates.

无聊的人玩无聊的点名游戏

架不住Kelly的软磨硬泡,终于还是把这个游戏完成了。

规则复述:

1、被点到名字的要在自己的博客或者空间上写下答案,所有问题都要真实回答,并且要将这几个题目传给你的七个好朋友,通知对方“你被点名了”。
2、这七个人要在博客或者空间上注明是在哪接到的题目,并且再将题目传给其他七个朋友,让游戏继续下去,不得回传,被点名的人将得到大家的祝福,并且所有美丽的愿望都会在不久以后得以实现。
3、虽然不可以回点,但是你的朋友的朋友还是可能会点到你,如果有第二次,甚至第三次点到,那说明你将会是一个非常幸运和幸福的人。
根据一般惯例,额外增加规则:
4、答完题后,删除掉一个你想删除的问题,增加一个你想问的问题,然后传给你朋友。

1. 如果被放到一个荒岛一个月,没电话,没网,你打算带什么东西去消磨度日?
野外生存手册 

2. 你觉得远距离的恋爱会有结果吗?如果是你你怎么做?
看分开的距离和时间长短

3. 在你眼里我是一个怎样的人?
缺点和优点都很多,似乎永远长不大的小女生 

4. 你现在住在哪个城市,如果能够选择,你希望住在哪里?
Stillwater, OK。如果可以选择,我想住在一个能看见海的地方。摩洛哥或许不错。

5. 如果现在可以让你随心所欲去旅行,你想去哪?
先回国,再去趟欧洲

6. 给你一个机会,你会一夜情或婚外情吗?
不想

7. 最不喜欢什么类型的人?
虚伪和自以为是的人

8. 你觉得我最大的缺点是什么?如何改进?
脾气大了点

9. 如果看到自己最爱的人熟睡在你面前你会做什么?
偷亲个嘴 

10. 如果你爱的人不爱你怎么办?
还没遇到过这种情况 

11. 如果可以重来,你最想改变的是什么?
没有什么需要改变,不想为过去的事伤神

12. 你认为有爱无性和有性无爱哪个会更难以接受?
都不好

13. 你最喜欢你伴侣的什么?如果没有,你希望你的伴侣具有什么品质?
善良,积极上进

14. 谈谈你最近在听的音乐?
谭咏麟,卫兰,古巨基,Bon Jovi

15. 你会选择你爱的人还是爱你的人?
参考第10条

16. 你觉得自己哪方面性格特征对别人最有吸引力?
善解人意,为人正直

17. 最近最让你迷惘的事情是什么?
某人赠语:一脸猪像,心头嘹亮。这么说来我该是没有什么迷惘的了 

18. 如果你出于某种原因离开所在的行业,你会去做什么?
创业,但不会离开所处行业

19. 如果暗恋她(他),你敢说出口吗?
要说,也要行动

20. 你觉得宽容是一项值得赞美的品质么?为什么?
是。宽容别人以及被人宽容都是一种快乐

21. 你是个感性的人还是理性的人?
多数情况下理性,但处理感情问题时却趋于感性

22. 当你对很重要的事情感到力不从心时,怎么处理?
死马当成活马医

23. 你认为怎么样才算幸福的生活?
做自己喜欢的事,有足够的物质条件,和心爱的人在一起

24. 你对现在自己生活状态满意吗?
还算满意

关于中国股市的一点拙见

先转两篇对比阅读来证明国内媒体都是如何为资本服务的。没兴趣搞比较文学的请直接跳到文末审阅小弟的拙笔。

中文:

灾难预言家:中国股市可能涨到8000点!

以数次惊人准确的灾难预测著称的投资家Marc  Faber如何看待当前的中国股市呢?他的观点是,中国股市继续上涨到8000点也是有可能的。
  Marc Faber被称为“末日博士”,目前他的资产管理公司Marc Faber Ltd管理着3亿美元的资产。在上世纪90年代日本股市泡沫破灭、墨西哥金融危机、亚洲金融风暴以及科技股泡沫破灭等事件发生之前,他都曾提出了悲观的预测。但本周一Marc Faber接受彭博采访时,却出人意料地对中国股市泡沫持“宽容”的态度。
  他列举出上世纪几次影响重大的泡沫,“当时的泡沫时期人们总是看好这一资产类别,比如看好金银价格,看好日本股票或者看好科技股。但是目前人们对中国股市的看法却只是‘泡沫’。
      发生在上世纪的泡沫资产,如金银、石油等,都一度连续增长了10到50倍,而目前中国股市只是从低点增长了3倍。“因此我可以说,的确,中国进入泡沫阶段。但是这并不意味着中国股票市场不可能从这个水平再次翻番。”Marc Faber表示。
  他还将中印股市作对比,印度股市在1994年达到顶点后下跌,截止到2003年以美元计算,印度股市缩水了七成,但是目前印度股市又开始强劲增长了;中国股市在2001年到2005年夏天下跌一半,然后从这一低点开始上涨。
  为了分散风险,全球投资者越来越喜欢将资金分散到各个投资领域,例如具有地理多样性的股票基金比专注单一地区的股票基金更加受欢迎。平衡型基金比股票基金更受欢迎等。但Marc Faber却认为这样不会降低多少风险。
  “大多数资产都是紧密联系的,从2002年10月到现在,所有的资产都在上涨——大宗商品、股票、发展市场股票和新兴市场股票,以及房地产,艺术品价格,所有的一切。”“到处都是泡沫。”
  因此当有一天所有的市场都会大幅下跌,很明显全球经济都会受到严重冲击。一些国家受到影响会比其他国家更大。“例如美国,其经济增长已经是靠资产通胀所推动的,而非真正的工业产值或者资本支出。”Marc Faber表示。
  而且他认为目前正是泡沫的最后一个阶段。在被问到投资策略,他指出“去寻找世界上被冷落的资产。”比如中东股票市场。这一市场的泡沫已经破灭,股市下跌了50%~70%,或者同样处在低迷时期底特律的房地产,以及巴西、阿根廷地区的农田。

洋文:

Faber Says U.S. Stocks Are More `Reasonably Priced' Than Others

By Adria Cimino and Naga Munchetty

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks are more ``reasonably priced'' than other markets following the dollar's decline, according to Marc Faber, who oversees $300 million at Hong Kong- based Marc Faber Ltd.

``U.S. stocks are not the biggest bubble,'' Faber said in an interview. Emerging markets and the Spanish property market reflect larger bubbles, he said.

Faber predicted on March 29 that the U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index was more likely to fall than rise above a six-year high reached the previous month, citing prospects for slowing economic growth. The index has climbed more than 7 percent since then amid a record run of takeovers.

There are bubbles across asset classes, but it's difficult to predict when they will deflate, Faber said.

``We're in the final stages, but the bubble can be very steep,'' the investor said. China's equity market could still double again from this level, he said.

Faber recommended investing in ``depressed assets,'' citing the Middle East market and the Detroit property market. He also said farmland in Argentina and Brazil is a good value and property in New Zealand and Australia may be a sound investment because of their proximity to China.

Faber said he has large positions in real estate and equities in Vietnam.

The publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report advised investors in 2001 to buy gold, which has since more than doubled. A Zurich native who learned English while picking potatoes in the U.K. countryside at the age of 13, Faber started his own firm in 1990.

中文转自《第一财经日报》,洋文转自Bloomberg。感兴趣就读读了。

中国这个股市是个大泡沫早已不是秘密,李嘉诚这样说,Alan Greenspan今天也讲了。只可惜国内的舆论太不自由,普通百姓或许根本无法获取这些信息。老百姓能听到的不过是以讹传讹,今天谁又炒股赚了多少,明天谁谁买基金又怎样怎样。这种环境下不股疯才奇怪。

目前的局面是政府想控制,可是法宝快用尽了也没有效果。不断增发新股,妄图能够吸纳疯狂涌入的新资金以免指数过快增长,失败!调高人民币兑美元的利率,discourage国外游资的涌入,失败!允许国内资金投资海外,以减轻目前国内的资本压力,失败!这个摊子要想兵不血刃地摆平,有难度。

说完政府面临的难题,再说说个人投资者的困境。对于个人投资者,通常只有两种选择。自主操作(即所谓的散户),或购买基金。在我看来,虽然基金相对于散户有盘大难跑路的劣势,但其掌握的信息和市场主导的优势完全可以容许基金(其他机构投资者同理)通过控制信息和让散户接盘的方式全身而退。这是在理想状况下,若出现任何例外状况,例如市场崩溃,基金将面临另一种风险,挤兑。具体不想多说,有兴趣请看2007年5月21日《证券时报》文章“4000点结构散户化 基金公司布防“挤赎”风险”

之所以想到写这些,其实是因为昨天给我妈打电话,她说她买了些基金。把我气坏了。跟她讲了半天理,她怎么也听不进去。我看实在无法说服,也只好作罢。反正也不等那点钱开伙,她爱怎样怎样吧。说多了怕打扰她老人家的发财美梦。

Girl scout cookies

Few days ago, a little girl knocked on my door. I opened the door. She told me that she's a girl scout, and she asked me if I could buy a box of cookies from her as a support to their organization, Girl Scout. I glimpsed the two boxes of cookies she held. The boxes looked very, hmm..., Great-valueish [1]. I thought for a second, and decided to buy one box from her.
 
F: How much for one?
G: 4 dollars.
F: Okay, I'm gonna buy one from you. Wait a minute.
(2 minutes later, the dozy guy with 2 george dubs and 8 hard cold quarters reappeared at the door step.)
F: Here you go. What kind of flavors do you have?
G: We have ....
.......
.......
 
Well, the ending was I bought a box of peanut, never-gonna-been-eaten cookies. What a happy ending. The shy girl achieved her business and gained confidence. The warm-hearted guy contributed $4 to charity and confirmed to himself that he's really as good as he thought.
 
Not really. After reading Erich Vieth's Don't buy Girl Scout cookies [2], I started thinking if I did wrong.
 
The primary idea of Erich's post is simple. Local troops keep only a small fraction of sales (around 12%-17%) generated in the cookie business while the bigger part of the money goes somewhere unknown. The Girl Scout headquarter is located at 5th Ave in Manhattan, which among the highest rent places in the world. Nowhere can the financial reports be found on the organization's website. Even worse, local troops have to purchase badges and other supplies with their own money. At the end, Erich came up a solution. Don't buy cookies from Girl Scouts. Whenever a girl sells cookies to you, instead of purchasing the cookies, DONATE THE MONEY DIRECTLY TO THE LOCAL TROOP.
 
The solution seems perfect, well, at least financially perfect. The flaw, as I see, is the solution only concerns on the fundraising aspect of the cookie business. How about the people involved in? Specifically, the girls. To those girls, not only selling cookies door by door is a fundraising activity for their organization, but also is it a way to build up their courage, confidence, business sense. Donating instead of buying the cookies may solve the financial problem, but the real value of the cookie business is also compromised.
 
Are we going to stop purchasing cookies from girl scouts? My answer is NO. I still will buy the cookie whenever asked. The underlying problem is not of those girls. If we have to blame someone, blame the organization being opaque financially, blame how this commercial world works, blame how ignorant the regulators are, and, well, blame Bush.
 
[1] According to Frederick's Encyclopedia:
* great-valueish
Function: adjective
Etymology: brain of Fred
1. pertains to inferior, cheap-looking product.
 
Notes from author of Frederick's Encyclopedia: I usually use Great Value, the brand marketed by Wal-mart, to refer an inferior, cheap looking product. (No offense here. I myself am a Great Value buyer actually.)
 
 
 
 
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